The IMF says the Middle East and Central Asia will contract by 0.3% in 2026, as war-related disruption hits shipping and oil flows. Kuwait, Iraq and Qatar are among the hardest hit, with double-digit GDP falls forecast.
Follow the storyIMF4 stories
01Summary
- 01The IMF said the Middle East and Central Asia’s GDP will contract by 0.3% in 2026, down from a 1.9% expansion forecast in April.
- 02Kuwait, Iraq and Qatar are forecast to see GDP shrink by 16.7%, 16% and 15.6% respectively.
- 03Bahrain’s economy is forecast to contract by 11.3%, while Iran’s is expected to shrink by 7.6%.
- 04Saudi Arabia is projected to record negative growth of 3.3% after partly offsetting energy-sector losses with more oil exports through the East-West pipeline.
- 05The IMF said global GDP is expected to grow 3.1%, while the Middle East and Central Asia is the only region forecast to have negative growth in 2026.
02Why it matters
The forecast points to a severe regional downturn affecting major oil producers and economies tied to Gulf trade routes. It also signals wider risks to energy supply, shipping and growth beyond the region if conflict worsens.
Pulse AIAsk about this story
Answers are generated by AI from the story summary; they are not investment, health or legal advice.
