Latest polls show Flavio Bolsonaro leading Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva by slim margins in Brazil's run-off election, but the race remains within the margin of error and too close to call.
01Summary
- 01CNT/MDA poll on 16 Oct 2026 shows Bolsonaro with 46.8% vs Lula's 45.9%.
- 02Quaest poll on 15 Oct found Bolsonaro at 46% and Lula at 44%.
- 03Datafolha poll shows Bolsonaro at 47% and Lula at 45%, down from 49% a week earlier.
- 04Bolsonaro won the first round on 4 Oct with 56,104,503 votes to Lula's 53,879,538.
- 05Brazil's Congress approved an amendment giving workers two paid days off a week, a victory for Lula.
02Why it matters
The outcome will shape Brazil's political direction and its relationship with the US, affecting the region's rightward shift and policies on crime, taxes, and social programmes.
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