The IMF has nudged up its global growth forecast to 3.1% for 2026, but says growth is becoming more concentrated and uneven as AI demand and higher energy costs reshape the economy.
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01Summary
- 01The IMF now expects the world economy to grow 3.1% in 2026, up from a July forecast of 3.0%.
- 02It says 32 countries will account for 95% of global growth, down from 54 countries in April.
- 03The US is forecast to grow 2.3% in 2026 and 2027, while advanced economies as a group are set to grow 2.1% this year and 1.9% next year.
- 04Global inflation is forecast at 4.7% in 2026, easing to 4.1% next year, with oil prices averaging $96 a barrel this year.
- 05The IMF warned that AI-related risks include a possible stock-market correction, while South Korea's Kospi fell as much as 7% on Tuesday before closing 5.5% lower.
02Why it matters
The IMF is signalling that headline growth is holding up, but the benefits are uneven and linked to AI, energy prices and debt risks. That could affect markets, jobs and borrowing costs in different regions over the next two years.
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