The International Energy Agency says diesel supply will stay tight into the second half of 2027, with war-related disruption, falling stocks and strong demand keeping pressure on prices.
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01Summary
- 01The IEA said on Wednesday that constraints on the diesel market will extend into next year and remain tight into the latter half of 2027.
- 02Global diesel exports fell by 700,000 barrels a day year-on-year last month, with a 1.3 million barrels per day loss from Russia and the Middle East only partly offset elsewhere.
- 03Wholesale diesel prices topped $200 a barrel in Singapore in mid-September and reached about $220 a barrel in Europe and the United States.
- 04U.S. diesel prices hit $6 a gallon for the first time last month as the Iran war continued to disrupt global energy markets.
- 05The IEA forecast overall oil demand will fall by 2.6 million barrels per day in 2026, with diesel accounting for 25% of that drop.
02Why it matters
Higher diesel prices feed through to transport, freight and consumer costs, especially in Europe, Africa and Latin America, where delivered prices could rise again. The outlook suggests fuel markets may stay strained for months, not weeks.
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